What If the Padres sign Machado, What Then?

What happens if the Padres get Machado?

First let’s talk about what it might take. After hearing that the offer from the White Sox was lower than expected, under $200 million by some estimates, what would it take for the Padres to sign Machado?

My take is that the Padres sign Machado to an 8 year/$240 million deal with an opt out after 4 years. The contract lays out as a $200 million signing bonus and 15/15/30/30/30/30/35/35 or something close to that to give the Padres leeway to sign other players early in his deal. 

Machado would play 3B to start the season with the rookie Urias at shortstop.

So what would the Padres need to do next?

The Padres starting pitching had the highest ERA in the NL last season so the obvious fix is to sign or trade for starting pitching.

Here are my suggestions.

Padres sign Gio Gonzalez
– 1 year/$8 million with an $8 million option/$1.5 million buyout

Padres trade for Alex Cobb
– Orioles pay $20 million (all of the deferred portion) of remaining $43 million on his contract.
The Orioles also take on an additional $5.5 million if Cobb does not pitch 130 innings in 2020.
Padres send Jacob Nix and Ronald Bolanos to the Orioles.

So what would the team look like with those 3 added to the mix

Starting 8 – (21-23)
To start season/2nd half  (Wins above replacement level in parentheses)
1B – Hosmer  
2B – Kinsler/Urias
SS – Urias/Tatis
3B – Machado
LF – Myers
CF – Margot
RF – Renfroe
C – Hedges

Bench (2-3)

Rotation (6-7) *=LHP

Bullpen (5-6)

This is an 82-84 win team
A team filled with all replacement level players would win 48 games. This team adds at least 34 WAR to that for a total of 84 wins.

Payroll – $110 million
Still $20 million in payroll flexibility to add at the deadline if the team is in contention.  

No top prospects traded 

Padres give up #47 overall pick in 2019 draft for signing Machado

That is my take. What do you think?

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